There’ll never be a better time to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program

Today, Israel has nuclear weapons, and Iran does not. This is the moment for the West to act boldly, not dither

There is considerable anxiety surrounding Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, with even President Joe Biden urging Israel not to strike after the Ayatollahs launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military sites this week. This seems a peculiar stance from the outgoing US President, especially given his recent lack of coherence.
Iran is the source of many of the Middle East’s troubles, and its terror proxies have destabilised Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon for decades, while remaining in constant conflict with Israel. However, with Hezbollah now severely weakened by Israeli intelligence and military operations, Tehran’s strategy of forward defence and attack is looking increasingly fragile. Having launched more than 500 missiles and drones at Israel with virtually no effect, Iran’s options for escalation are limited.
Many assume Iran possesses a nuclear weapon that could be used against Israel or one of its allies. But it does not – at least not yet. Moreover, given the state of Iran’s missile technology as demonstrated this week, even if it had a nuclear weapon, it’s unlikely to reach its intended target. It would more likely explode in the upper atmosphere, failing to detonate properly, and potentially spreading contamination across Iran’s own allies in Iraq and Syria.
To create a viable nuclear weapon, uranium must be enriched to around 95%. Some experts suggest Iran may have reached the 80% mark after years of effort, but this is still far short of what is needed to produce a functional nuclear device.
North Korea, the third member of the so-called ‘axis of evil’, is probably closer to developing a nuclear weapon than Iran, but its missile technology remains insufficient. It’s plausible that both countries are trading conventional weapons with Moscow in exchange for nuclear expertise. However, Putin is shrewd enough not to hand over the ‘keystone’ of nuclear capability, knowing that the Ayatollahs or Kim Jong Un might turn it against him as readily as they would against others.
If ever there were a time to neutralise Iran’s nuclear research and development facilities, therefore, it is now – when they cannot use them to escalate the conflict with Israel. At this stage, the fallout would be limited, and far less damaging than bombing Iran’s oil infrastructure, which could contaminate the Gulf for years.
There is also the possibility that Iran has developed other WMDs, such as chemical weapons. Iran has a history of chemical warfare, exchanging thousands of tonnes with Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, which resulted in thousands of deaths. Tehran might have observed the effectiveness of Russia’s use of chemical weapons in eastern Ukraine. While delivery remains a challenge, the psychological impact of chemical weapons is often “ten to one” compared to their physical damage. The Ayatollahs may believe the gamble is worth the odds.
In summary, Iran’s nuclear weapon is a ‘chimera’ – it does not currently exist. With the IAEA unable to halt its development through legislation and scrutiny, potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities might be the most effective way to prevent a future nuclear confrontation. Today, Israel has nuclear weapons, and Iran does not. This is the moment for the US to act boldly, not dither. With the Ayatollahs cornered, the US should focus on bringing Tehran and Tel Aviv to the negotiating table rather than sending mixed signals by supporting Israel while simultaneously restraining it.
Amidst all the nuclear sabre-rattling in the Middle East, we must not lose sight of the second leg of the ‘axis of evil’ in Moscow. Putin is likely revelling in the West’s near-total focus on the Middle East, and the grim possibility that military resources desperately needed in Ukraine could be diverted elsewhere.
Bold action wins wars; dithering tends to lose them.